What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected Value is a fundamental concept in probability and gambling that tells you the average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet in the long run. It's calculated by weighing all possible outcomes by their probability of occurring.
The Basic Formula
Since losing means you lose your bet amount, the "Amount Lost" is negative (e.g., -$100 for a $100 bet).
Simple Example:
You bet $100 on a coin flip at +100 odds (even money):
- Probability of winning: 50% (0.5)
- Amount won if you win: $100
- Probability of losing: 50% (0.5)
- Amount lost if you lose: -$100
Result: This is a fair bet with zero expected value.
Why Expected Value Matters for Karma Betting
On the Real app, you want to find situations where the "true" probability of an outcome (estimated from sportsbook odds) differs from the payout odds offered by Real. When Real offers better odds than the true probability suggests, you have a positive EV bet.
Key Insight
Sportsbooks are generally more accurate at setting odds because they have more sophisticated models and handle much larger volumes. By using sportsbook odds to estimate true probabilities, we can identify when Real is offering favorable bets.
What are "No-Vig" Probabilities?
Sportsbooks build in a profit margin called "vig" or "juice." For example, both sides of a bet might have -110 odds, implying a 52.4% probability each, totaling 104.8%. The extra 4.8% is the vig.
To get true probabilities, we remove this vig by normalizing the implied probabilities so they add up to 100%. The calculator does this for you; this is simply for informational purposes.
No-Vig Example:
Sportsbook odds: Over -110, Under -110
- Implied probability Over: 52.4%
- Implied probability Under: 52.4%
- Total: 104.8% (4.8% vig)
No-vig probabilities:
- Over: 52.4% ÷ 104.8% = 50%
- Under: 52.4% ÷ 104.8% = 50%
How to Use the Karma Betting Calculator
Choose 50, 100, or 200 karma, depending on the maximum bet allowed by Real.
Input the odds offered by Real for both Over/Home Team and Under/Away Team. These are in American format (like +150 or -120). When no odds are displayed on Real, it is an even money wager (+100 for each side).
- Use the +/- buttons to quickly add signs
- Press Enter to move between fields
- Default values are +100 (even money)
Find the same bet on a major sportsbook (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.) and enter those odds.
- Choose between American (+150, -120) or Decimal (2.50, 1.83) format
- Make sure you're comparing the exact same bet (same totals, sides, teams, etc.)
The calculator shows four different expected values:
- Max Bet EV: Expected value of betting your maximum karma amount
- Zero Bet EV: Expected value of making a zero bet.
The recommendation section highlights the best bet based on highest expected value.