Pool Optimizer

This tool helps you find the optimal combination of picks for Real pools to maximize your expected value (EV).

Setup:

• Betting Type: Choose 'ML' (Moneyline) or 'Spread'. If you choose Spread, the "Real App Odds" fields will disappear and default to +100 for each side.
• Number of Games: Select how many games are in the pool (2, 3, or 4).
• Vegas Odds Format: Choose whether you want to input the Vegas odds in American or Decimal format.

Game Inputs:

• For each game, input the required data for both the Away and Home teams.
• Vote Share (%): The percentage of users who have picked that team in the pool.
• Vote Total: The total number of votes on that side of the pool.
• Real App Odds: The American-style odds offered for the bet on Real (only for ML).
• Vegas Odds: The true market odds from a sportsbook. This is used to calculate the real win probability for each team.
• Lock Game: If a game has already started, you can enter the live Vegas odds and "lock" it. This forces the optimizer to include your chosen team and bet size in its calculations while accounting for the real-time odds of winning that game.

Results:

• After clicking "Run Optimizer", the tool will display the best strategies.
• Highest EV Strategy: The combination of picks that provides the absolute highest total expected value.
• Lowest Risk Strategy (+EV): The combination with the highest chance of winning *any* payout (1st or 2nd place) that still has a positive total expected value. This may appear if it's different from the highest EV strategy.
• Detailed Results: A table showing the EV and other details for every possible combination of picks.

Saving & Loading:

• This tool allows you to save your inputs for later, giving you the opportunity to come back and reassess your strategy if/when odds change.
• Storage: Pool inputs are only saved to the user's local browser storage. They will not appear on a different browser or device, or if the user erases their browsing data.
• WARNING: Nothing on this page is auto-saved. Users must manually save their inputs by clicking "save" if they wish to keep them.